Since last June, since the high international crude oil prices have dropped more than half, as the international crude oil benchmark brent crude price movements constantly refresh the anticipation of bottom line of the market for oil.The golden age of oil is over?

For some, low oil prices can keep the oil industry "life longer.

High oil prices is difficult to achieve

Fall below $50 oil seems to be a landmark event in the history of the price of crude oil, brent and WTI crude oil from early 2014 had dropped by 55% and 55% respectively.

"Oil prices to the bottom of the u-shaped, go next depends on the capital market investment judgment, the current price, almost for all manufacturers, will be unfavorable."Chen weidong said.

Minsheng securities researcher TaoYiGong petrochemical energy was think, now the price of crude oil should be located in the bottom, to continue downward space is limited, but the short term is difficult to have a big rebound.

"The main reason is from drilling to give oil of time is about 8 ~ 10 months, in the first half of this year global oil production will still grow, but since the second half, a drop in oil prices resulting in the reduction in oil and gas companies will gradually show the influence of exploration and development investment, oil prices are also expected gradually upward rebound, rebound height is expected to $60 to $70 a barrel."TaoYiGong said.

In the crude oil market obvious imbalance between supply and demand, the organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) and shale oil producers in the United States also deadlocked are reluctant to cut prices continued to fall, the pressure of the oil producers.

At the beginning of the New Year, the American Texas shale oil and gas business WBHEnergyLP because lenders declined to provide more money to file for bankruptcy protection, became the first outweighs the decline and fall of shale oil producers.It is reported, WBHEnergy company faces 10 million ~ $50 million in debt.

Analysis of the personage inside course of study, said: "the United States is relatively good shale oil enterprises are mainly concentrated in Texas, now the state has a producer bankruptcy, expect oil prices continue to decline will have more shale oil company bankruptcy."

A drop in oil prices "quartet"

It seems to Chen weidong, the golden age of oil is over."The international crude oil market is the most important of the four countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, China is the" quartet ", this is also a major cause of lead to a drop in oil prices."

Specifically, what is happening in these countries?

Saudi Arabia as the largest oil producer, has been insisted not production, its purpose is to hope that by low oil prices on the shale oil and the development of alternative energy.Chen weidong believed that Saudi Arabia don't hope that oil prices are too high, so try to cut prices for market share, "an official in the Saudi Arabia has said that if oil prices to $200, Saudi Arabia will cease. Because of high gasoline prices will greatly promote the development of alternative energy, prices can protect themselves instead, fight for market share".

Look at Russia, this is one of the most wanted to increase oil export countries.Now Russia by cutting energy export tax and improving resource tax, promote energy enterprises to export, guarantee the fiscal revenue, attract overseas offshore money back home.Although the Russian government work hard, but the market short-term prospects do not look good for Russia's economy.Researcher at the Chinese academy of Russian OuYaSuo Zhang Hong believes that the future with the propulsion, new energy and new technology revolution Russian economic rut, putin proposed plans to revive Russia is expected to also run aground.

Be worth what carry is, compared with the previous three times in the history of oil prices fell sharply, the drop in oil prices different from those of the largest, is the development of alternative energy.Chen

weidong said: "the past 1986 years, 1998 years, and 2009 a drop in oil prices did not appear alternative energy, and in 2014 this time. This is mainly the development of energy storage technology, the future development of this technology will have a far-reaching influence on oil and other fossil energy."

In the past two years, the shale oil in technological progress, driven by rising production, cause excess demand, as the largest oil producers in the United States, is also the biggest consumer, a drop in oil prices will further promote the development of shale oil technology.Chen weidong said: "the United States increase shale oil production lower oil prices this action is to continue the life of the oil."